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Warren leapfrogs Sanders in pair of 2020 polls

Elizabeth Warren’s vote share has ticked up over the past month or two amid a flurry of policy rollouts and a strong organizing presence in early voting states. | Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo

Elizabeth Warren leaped ahead of Bernie Sanders into second place in a pair of Democratic presidential primary polls released Wednesday.

Warren has overtaken Sanders nationally, according to a new Economist/YouGov poll, which puts the Massachusetts senator ahead of her Vermont counterpart 16 percent to 12 percent. Former Vice President Joe Biden still leads all contenders with 26 percent support.

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Warren also polls ahead of Sanders in Nevada, where Democrats will caucus next February after the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary. Biden leads the first Monmouth poll of likely Democratic caucusgoers in Nevada with 36 percent support, followed by Warren at 19 percent and Sanders at 13 percent.

“Nevada’s highly unionized service sector workforce may be a good fit for Warren’s policy platform when you look at the Democratic electorates in the four early states,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “However, she is nowhere near the top tier in terms of candidate preferences among Latino and black voters, who make up a significant part of the party’s base here.”

National polling averages still show Sanders running significantly ahead of Warren. But Warren’s vote share has generally ticked up over the past month or two amid a flurry of policy rollouts and a strong organizing presence in early voting states.

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Warren began laying out her vision of “economic patriotism” earlier this month with a plan for a $ 2 trillion investment of federal funds over 10 years in green research, manufacturing and exporting. She touted several other plans during an MSNBC town hall last week, including protecting access to abortion, an anti-corruption policy to rein in lobbyists and more corporate accountability for major companies.

Warren has more than 50 staffers on the ground in Iowa, and more hires are expected to be announced over the weekend. She expects to have a similarly large presence in New Hampshire and at least 30 staffers each in South Carolina and Nevada, where Warren is working on bringing on Latino interns and setting up caucus trainings in Latino communities.

While Biden has dominated the centrist lane, Warren and Sanders have competed for the party’s left flank. In the Nevada poll, Biden leads the field with moderate and conservative Democrats (47 percent) and somewhat liberal voters (31 percent). Warren narrowly bests Sanders with very liberal voters, 27 percent to 26 percent, but she outperforms him threefold with somewhat liberal voters, 24 percent to 8 percent.

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She also ranks at the top as voters’ second choice, though the margin between Warren, Sanders, Biden and California Sen. Kamala Harris is all within 2 percentage points.

In the Economist/YouGov survey, Warren’s net favorability is slighter higher than Sanders’, -6 percent to -7 percent, but Sanders is tied with New York Mayor Bill de Blasio for the candidate whom likely Democratic voters would be most disappointed to see win the nomination.

Twenty-percent of respondents said it would disappoint them if Sanders or de Blasio won the Democratic nomination for president. Nineteen percent said the same of Biden. Only 9 percent said they would be disappointed if Warren won the nomination.

The Economist/YouGov survey of 1,500 adults was conducted June 9-11. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. Monmouth’s Nevada poll of 370 likely caucusgoers was conducted June 6-11. Its margin of error is plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.

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