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POLITICO Playbook: Welcome back … Shutdown, Day 12

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House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi is pictured. | Getty Images

The calculus by the president and many of his allies is that House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi is in a jam, and cannot sustain a no-money-for-a-border-wall position. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

DRIVING THE DAY

SHUTDOWN … DAY 12 … WELCOME BACK. The new Congress begins tomorrow, and leaders are going to the White House this afternoon for a border security briefing with PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP and DHS officials. This is now tied for the sixth-longest shutdown in U.S. history.

DEMS’ FIRST MOVE … DIVIDED GOVERNMENT BEGINS — THE HOUSE — which will be run by Nancy Pelosi as of tomorrow afternoon — will pass its stopgap spending bill by 7 p.m. tomorrow evening. It will fund most of the government through September, but kick DHS funding to February. Dems will make the argument that they’re governing while the White House is sowing chaos. Both of these items individually had support from the Senate.

— THE CALCULUS by the president and many of his allies is that PELOSI is in a jam, and cannot sustain a no-money-for-a-border-wall position. Trump tweeted this Tuesday: “Border Security and the Wall ‘thing’ and Shutdown is not where Nancy Pelosi wanted to start her tenure as Speaker! Let’s make a deal?” Rachael Bade on Trump declining to attack Pelosi personally

— BUT … Pelosi gains from this fight internally. The border security money in the stopgap — $ 1.3 billion — is plenty for most Democrats. Since most Democrats have ruled out a DACA-for-border-wall deal, we struggle to see what deal can be had at the moment. Does it seem like this freshman class of Democrats was elected to cut a border-wall deal with Trump in its first days in office?

THE NEW MAJORITY — PELOSI and JIM MCGOVERN (D-MASS.), incoming House Rules Committee chairman, rolled out House Democrats’ rules package Tuesday night. Changes include: a 72-hour rule to allow members of Congress time to review bills before they are voted on; a “consensus calendar” to move quickly on legislation with bipartisan support; and a bipartisan Select Committee to modernize Congress. The rules also ban members of Congress and employees from sitting on corporate boards. The rules package

— BIG CHANGE: The rules package also allows Congress to suspend the debt limit by passing a budget — the so-called Gephardt Rule.

— INTERESTING … The rules also change the process by which the House can remove the speaker — the so-called motion to vacate. The motion now needs to be at the direction of a majority of Democrats. Previously, just one lawmaker could force a vote on the speaker.

WEDNESDAY LISTEN: ANNA spoke with incoming Democratic freshman KATIE PORTER of California in the latest WOMEN RULE podcast about how she’s approaching her new job with juggling being a single parent and what her priorities are for the upcoming Congress. Listen and subscribe

— “House Dem majority welcomes first black female floor director,” by Nolan McCaskill: “A veteran House Democratic staffer is set to break racial barriers once the House Democrats take power this week. Shuwanza Goff will be the first African-American woman to serve as floor director, a low-profile but hugely important position in incoming House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer’s (D-Md.) office.” POLITICO

BREAKING … AP: “On-duty U.S. Marine shot, killed inside Washington barracks”: “Police in Washington, D.C., say a U.S. Marine has been shot and killed inside of the Marine Barracks in Washington.

“News outlets report that police say a male Marine was shot early Tuesday morning in an apparent accident and later pronounced dead. Police haven’t said why the shooting was accidental. Marine Corps spokesman Chief Gunnery Sgt. John says the man did not shoot himself. Authorities did not immediately release the man’s name. A barracks statement says the release of the man’s name is pending notification of his family.” AP

MARKETS SLUMPING … FT’S MICHAEL HUNTER and ALICE WOODHOUSE: “Stock markets made a gloomy start to 2019, with investors in a cautious mood at the start of a year featuring a lengthy list of risk factors, from the threat of a disorderly Brexit to concern at a global economic slowdown.

“The sustained declines for equities followed on from the worst year for global stock markets since the financial crisis in 2008, with the impact of the trade war between the US and China on a stuttering world economy at the forefront of concern.

“European bourses were tracked losses in Asia, after economic data pointed to a contraction for China’s manufacturing sector, adding to the worries. London’s FTSE 100 fell 1.4 per cent, with Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax 30 in Frankfurt down 1 per cent, after wider losses in Asia. U.S. futures also predicted losses, of 1.2 per cent for the S&P 500.” FT

Good Wednesday morning. A big thank you to Blake Hounshell and Daniel Lippman for helming Playbook for the last few days. We’re excited to be back in the saddle. Happy New Year!

A message from the American Petroleum Institute:

Welcome to America’s Generation Energy, led by the women and men of the natural gas and oil industry, who are meeting unprecedented consumer demand for affordable and reliable energy while reducing the U.S. carbon footprint to its lowest level in a generation. See how we’re doing it and join us at PowerPastImpossible.org.

REAL IMPACTS OF THE SHUTDOWN — “Shutdown Leaves Food, Medicine and Pay in Doubt in Indian Country,” by NYT’s Mitch Smith in Sault Ste. Marie, Mich., and Julie Turkewitz in Denver: “For one tribe of Chippewa Indians in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, the government shutdown comes with a price tag: about $ 100,000, every day, of federal money that does not arrive to keep health clinics staffed, food pantry shelves full and employees paid. The tribe is using its own funds to cover the shortfalls for now. But if the standoff in Washington continues much longer, that stopgap money will be depleted.

“Later this month, workers could be furloughed and health services could be pared back. … For many Americans who are not federal workers or contractors, a shutdown is a minor inconvenience. A trip to a national park may be canceled. A call to a government office may go unanswered. But for Native American tribes, which rely heavily on federal money to operate, a shutdown can cripple their most basic functions.” NYT

— WAPO: “In shutdown, national parks transform into Wild West — heavily populated and barely supervised,” by Meghann Cuniff, John Waters and Joel Achenbach

ON THE BORDER — “U.S. fires tear gas across Mexico border to stop migrants” — AP/Tijuana: “U.S. authorities fired tear gas into Mexico during the first hours of the new year to repel about 150 migrants who tried to breach the border fence in Tijuana. U.S. Customs and Border Protection said in a statement later Tuesday that the gas was used to target rock throwers apart from the migrants who were trying to cross. …

“An Associated Press photographer saw at least three volleys of gas launched onto the Mexican side of the border near Tijuana’s beach that affected the migrants, including women and children, as well as journalists. The AP saw rocks thrown only after U.S. agents fired the tear gas.” AP

INCOMING!!! … SEN.-ELECT MITT ROMNEY (R-UTAH) in WaPo, “The president shapes the public character of the nation. Trump’s character falls short”: “The Trump presidency made a deep descent in December. The departures of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly, the appointment of senior persons of lesser experience, the abandonment of allies who fight beside us, and the president’s thoughtless claim that America has long been a ‘sucker’ in world affairs all defined his presidency down. It is well known that Donald Trump was not my choice for the Republican presidential nomination.

“After he became the nominee, I hoped his campaign would refrain from resentment and name-calling. It did not. When he won the election, I hoped he would rise to the occasion. His early appointments of Rex Tillerson, Jeff Sessions, Nikki Haley, Gary Cohn, H.R. McMaster, Kelly and Mattis were encouraging. But, on balance, his conduct over the past two years, particularly his actions this month, is evidence that the president has not risen to the mantle of the office.” WaPo

— VP MIKE PENCE has to swear him in tomorrow! Awkward!

HOW JOE BIDEN IS SPENDING HIS TIME … NYT’S KEVIN SACK and ALEX BURNS: “How Biden Has Paved the Way for a Possible Presidential Run: A series of careful financial decisions, and the creation of nonprofits and academic centers staffed by close advisers, would help a campaign-in-waiting”: “When officials at the University of Utah invited Joseph R. Biden Jr. to speak there in December, Mr. Biden’s representatives listed a number of requirements for the appearance. His booking firm, Creative Artists Agency, said the school would need to fly Mr. Biden and his aides to Salt Lake City by private plane.

“It would have to buy 1,000 copies of his recent memoir for distribution to the audience. There would be no insertion of the word ‘former’ before ‘vice president’ in social media promotions. And the speaking fee would be $ 100,000 — ‘a reduced rate,’ it was explained, for colleges and universities.

“But three days before the event, Mr. Biden’s aides learned that the public university would be using state funds to pay his fee. They already had a policy against taking tuition dollars, and decided that accepting taxpayer dollars for such a windfall might appear just as politically distasteful. Mr. Biden made the trip anyway but declined to take a check.” NYT

TV TONIGHT — Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) will join MSNBC’s “The Rachel Maddow Show” in her first live TV interview since launching a 2020 presidential exploratory committee.

A message from the American Petroleum Institute:

Welcome to America’s Generation Energy, led by the women and men of the natural gas and oil industry, who are meeting unprecedented consumer demand for affordable and reliable energy while reducing the U.S. carbon footprint to its lowest level in a generation. See how we’re doing it and join us at PowerPastImpossible.org.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK …

— The Commission on Presidential Debates is now accepting applications from sites interested in hosting a 2020 presidential or vice presidential debate. The requirements include: “A debate hall of at least 15,000 square feet that is air conditioned. … Nearby hotels that can provide 3,000 rooms for the event.” The deadline is April 2. CPD will announce the general election debate sites this fall. More info

Democratic presidential candidate REP. JOHN DELANEY (MD.) is paying for 14 Georgetown law students and two faculty members to go to a detention center in Dilley, Texas. The students and professors will spend a week helping provide legal aid to asylum seekers, according to a Delaney spokesman. Student groups will also go in May and December. Delaney is also scheduled to tour the facility and meet with families tomorrow. John and April Delaney donated $ 40,000 to the Georgetown Human Rights Institute for the effort. Delaney is a Georgetown Law alum.

PLAYBOOK READS

A migrant running from tear gas is pictured. | AP Photo

PHOTO DU JOUR: A migrant runs from tear gas thrown by U.S. border officials Tuesday after people climbed the fence between Tijuana, Mexico, and San Diego. | Daniel Ochoa de Olza/AP Photo

DAVID BROWN: “How women took over the military-industrial complex”: “From the executive leadership of top weapons-makers, to the senior government officials designing and purchasing the nation’s military arsenal, the United States’ national defense hierarchy is, for the first time, largely run by women.

“As of Jan. 1, the CEOs of four of the nation’s five biggest defense contractors — Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics and the defense arm of Boeing — are now women. And across the negotiating table, the Pentagon’s top weapons buyer and the chief overseer of the nation’s nuclear stockpile now join other women in some of the most influential national security posts, such as the nation’s top arms control negotiator and the secretary of the Air Force.” POLITICO

WAR REPORT … WSJ’S BEN KESLING: “Powerful Antitank Missiles Put U.S. Forces in Middle East at Risk”: “An upgraded class of high-powered weaponry has flooded the battlefields of the Middle East, threatening even the most sophisticated battle tanks and highlighting a gap in U.S. military preparedness. The weapons—antitank guided missiles, or ATGMs—were first developed decades ago, but recent years have brought advances in their technology, ease of use and availability on the battlefield, making them a fearsome and little-acknowledged threat to U.S. troops.

“The proliferation is largely the result of efforts of powers such as the U.S., Russia and Iran to arm and train proxy fighters, including by sending them antitank missiles along with other weaponry.” WSJ

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FOR YOUR RADAR — “AP Exclusive: Vatican letter undermines U.S cardinal on abuse,” by Nicole Winfield in Vatican City: “The Vatican blocked U.S. bishops from taking measures to address the clergy sex abuse scandal because U.S. church leaders didn’t discuss the legally problematic proposals with the Holy See enough beforehand, according to a letter obtained by The Associated Press. The Nov. 11 letter from the Vatican’s Cardinal Marc Ouellet provides the primary reason that Rome balked at the measures that were to be voted on by the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops at its Nov. 12-14 meeting.

“The blocked vote stunned abuse survivors and other Catholics who were demanding action from U.S. bishops to address clergy sex abuse and cover-up. Ouellet’s letter undermines the version of events provided by the conference president, Cardinal Daniel DiNardo. It could also provide fodder for questions during a spiritual retreat of U.S. bishops, dedicated to the abuse crisis, that opens Wednesday in Chicago.” AP

CLICKER — VANITY FAIR: “‘We Did Not Come to Play’: Politics’ New Power Players are Ready for a Fight,” by Claire Landsbaum: “Vanity Fair takes stock of the evolving matrix of power within the Beltway and beyond, from rising stars to those whose clout springs eternal.” With 8 photos on one page: VF

MEDIAWATCH — JAMES ROSEN is joining Sinclair Broadcast Group as an investigative reporter in its D.C. bureau. He is the former chief Washington correspondent for Fox News.

PLAYBOOKERS

SPOTTED: Justice Sonia Sotomayor leaving the Acela lounge at New York Penn Station on Tuesday afternoon … Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) at the AMC Georgetown cinema Tuesday afternoon.

WEEKEND WEDDING — OBAMA ALUMNI: Eric Fanning, president and CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association and former secretary of the Army, married Ben Masri-Cohen, a budget analyst at the National Gallery of Art, in a wedding at Longview Gallery in D.C. Pool report: “They were legally married by Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) at their house the week before Christmas. The black tie NYE event [Monday] night included a 12 minute video of the Booker-officiated ceremony, punctuated by music and narrated by Allison Janney.” PicAnother pic

SPOTTED: Rep.-elect Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and David Moore, Debbie James, Gordon Tanner, Adam Topper, Stuart Spencer, Gautam Raghavan, Bishop Gene Robinson, Eun Yang, Jim Obergefell, Amy Dacey, Alex Wagner, Mike Sozan, Melissa Fitzgerald and Flo Groberg.

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Justin Bartolomeo, VP of comms and public affairs firm HDMK (hat tip: Andrew Bates)

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Erin Hughes, managing director at DCI Group and a Bush 43 and Bloomberg alum. A trend she thinks deserves more attention: “Improving failing schools is an issue that doesn’t get enough attention. Under the Every Student Succeeds Act, about a billion dollars was given to states to turn around the country’s lowest performing schools. There’s little to no federal oversight as to how states are approaching this important work. … People need to pay attention and advocate for real innovative solutions because achievement gaps persist across the U.S.” Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Mike Zapler, POLITICO deputy managing editor … Mike Sozan, senior fellow at CAP, is 5-0 (h/t Alex Wagner) … Judy Miller … Greg Mueller, president of CRC Public Relations (h/t Elizabeth Ray) … Annie Lewis, who leads Facebook’s political and advocacy advertising team in its D.C. office (h/ts David Fahrenthold and Tucker Bounds) … Will Jawando … Cyrus Farivar of Ars Technica … Lindsey Ross … Michael Webb is 53 … Christi Layman … Chris Hartline … Stephanie Woodrow … Rachel Perrone … former Rep. Henry Bonilla (R-Texas) is 65 … Jessica Cameron … Cheyenne Foster, senior associate at Axiom Strategies … James Tisch, CEO of Loews Corporation, is 66 …

… John Thornton, executive chairman of Barrick Gold and former president of Goldman Sachs … Robert Wexler, president of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace, is 58 … HFAC staffer Scott Cullinane (h/t wife Kelly) … Annie Starke, policy adviser at Brownstein Schreck (h/ts Jill Barclay and Laura Howard) … Marc Johnson of APCO Worldwide … Nebraska state Sen. Anna Wishart (h/t Blake Waggoner) … Lizzie Langer … Rachel Hicks, director of comms at American Beverage Association … Jane Krause … Kelly Schulz … Douglas Faulkner … Alexa Barchuk … Faridon Abbas … Linda Gaumer … Craig Varoga (h/t Teresa Vilmain)

A message from the American Petroleum Institute:

Welcome to America’s Generation Energy, led by the women and men of the natural gas and oil industry. Together we power modern life by delivering the fuel, power, products and innovation that are connecting us and making lives safer, healthier and more affordable. America’s abundant natural gas and oil are creating jobs, supporting communities and the economy, strengthening U.S. security and developing the technologies of the future. Generation Energy is solving complex problems, meeting unprecedented consumer demand for affordable and reliable energy while reducing the U.S. carbon footprint to its lowest level in a generation. With smart trade, infrastructure and regulatory policies, Generation Energy is poised to accelerate U.S. energy leadership and build on the environmental progress we’ve achieved. See how we’re doing it and join us at PowerPastImpossible.org.

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