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POLITICO Playbook PM: Trump vs. Schumer and Pelosi

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House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, President Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is pictured. | Getty Images

The big question: How far will President Donald Trump go during his address to the nation tonight? Will he declare a “national emergency”? | Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

THE SPLIT SCREEN … PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP will give his first Oval Office address tonight. HOUSE SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI and SENATE MINORITY LEADER CHUCK SCHUMER will respond, from the Capitol.

THE BIG QUESTION … How far will TRUMP go during his address to the nation tonight? Will he declare a “national emergency”? Will he stick to the talking points that this is a humanitarian crisis? DEMOCRATS will launch investigations and court challenges immediately if Trump declares a national emergency on the border.

— A FEW NUGGETS FROM NYT’S ANNIE KARNI and MAGGIE HABERMAN: “President Trump has invited representatives from cable and broadcast news channels to an off-the-record lunch at the White House ahead of his prime time speech Tuesday night, an address in which he is expected to frame his demand for border wall funding as a response to a national security and humanitarian crisis.

“The White House has requested about eight minutes of broadcast time from the networks for Mr. Trump’s Oval Office remarks. The president appears to be preparing for the event as if he is delivering a miniature State of the Union message — typically, television anchors meet with the president over lunch ahead of his annual address to Congress. …

“[W]hile Democrats have been bracing themselves for him to make that declaration on Tuesday night, administration officials who had seen a draft copy of his speech said the president was not preparing to do so.” NYT

IT’S WORTH NOTING — If they go the national emergency route, it will become quite clear the White House is not looking for a way out of the 18-day government shutdown. Going the national emergency route isn’t going to put Democrats into dealmaking mode.

— BTW: Schumer and Pelosi doing it together indicates, at least to us, that they are trying to show that there no space between them — as Republicans have suggested there might be.

NBC’S ALLAN SMITH: “Major networks will carry Democratic response to Trump immigration speech”: “All of the major broadcast networks — CBS and NBC, as well as Fox and ABC, according to Variety — will show the response. On cable, MSNBC, CNN and Fox News will carry the response.” NBC

ABOUT THAT EMERGENCY ORDER … WSJ’S JESS BRAVIN: “When Is It Legal to Declare a National Emergency? A move by Trump to build a border wall might survive court challenges, but Congress could take steps to defund it”: WSJ

Good Tuesday afternoon.

PENCE SPEAKS — CAITLIN OPRYSKO: “Pence dodges credibility questions on border ‘crisis’ in morning show barrage”: “The vice president also repeated Trump’s misleading insistence that a renegotiated free trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico and Canada fulfills to his campaign promise that Mexico would pay for a border wall, arguing that the new deal is structured ‘in a way that it will benefit the United States in jobs and tax revenues.’ …

“Asked about the president’s assertion regarding his conversations with past presidents, Pence misrepresented what Trump had said. The vice president did note, correctly, that past presidents have indeed sought immigration and border reforms. ‘I know the president said that was his impression from previous administrations, previous presidents,’ Pence said. ‘I know I’ve seen clips of previous presidents talking about the importance of border security, importance of addressing the issue of illegal immigration.’” POLITICO

THE DEMOCRATIC POSITION … ABC’S BEN SIEGEL (@benyc): “.@LeaderHoyer reaffirms Dem opposition to negotiating DACA or comprehensive immigration reform until gov’t is reopen.”

GOOD RUNDOWN OF THE DETAILS — VOX’S DARA LIND: “Here’s the offer Trump is making to Democrats to end the shutdown”

THE IMPACT … “Government Shutdown Leaves Federal Workers Struggling To Pay For Food, Medication,” by HuffPost’s Dave Jamieson and Amanda Terkel: “Maxing out credit cards. Borrowing money from relatives. Searching for interest-free loans. Federal workers and their families are doing whatever they can to save a few dollars and eke by as the partial government shutdown continues with no imminent end in sight. Many are fearful weeks will go by without another payday, forcing them to take on debt or find side jobs in order to cover housing and food costs. …

“For Kathryn Smith, the shutdown has meant forgoing her medication for lupus in order to pay the bills and buy food. … Daniel Moragne, a federal contractor in Louisiana who isn’t even sure if he’ll get back pay, is, at the age of 67, wondering if he’ll lose his apartment if the federal government doesn’t get its act together.” HuffPost

— WAPO’S JOHN WAGNER: “Bipartisan governors group calls for immediate end to shutdown”: “A letter from the National Governors Association cited negative effects on federal workers and state economies and decried the use of a government shutdown to gain leverage in unresolved policy disagreements. … The [NGA] letter called the shutdown ‘a failure in governance and a weight on our economy and the American people.’” WaPo

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ON THE WORLD STAGE — “Turkey’s Erdogan snubs John Bolton as rift between NATO allies deepens,” by NBC’s Carol Lee in Ankara: “Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan refused to meet with U.S. national security adviser John Bolton on Tuesday, while telegraphing a widening rift between the NATO allies that leaves the Trump administration’s plans to withdraw troops from Syria in limbo.

“In a speech to parliament, Erdogan said that Bolton had made [a] ‘serious mistake’ in calling for a new condition for the U.S. exit from Syria. … He said that Turkey would never compromise on the issue of the YPG Kurdish militia … Erdogan said he wouldn’t be able to spend any time with Bolton because because he was headed to parliament to deliver a speech. A meeting between Bolton and Erdogan was never confirmed, a U.S. official said, but administration officials had said one was expected.” NBC … Erdogan’s NYT op-ed

— “U.S. envoy working on Qatar dispute resigns from State Department,” by CBS’ Margaret Brennan: “Anthony Zinni, a retired Marine Corps general and former head of U.S. Central Command … is the latest four-star general to exit the administration. Zinni resigned after realizing he could not help resolve the Qatar dispute ‘because of the unwillingness of the regional leaders to agree to a viable mediation effort that we offered to conduct or assist in implementing,’ he told CBS News.” CBS

— NYT’S STEVEN ERLANGER: “U.S. Downgraded E.U.’s Diplomatic Status (but Didn’t Say Anything)”: “After protest from Brussels and discussion between the European Union and the Trump administration, the reclassification of the delegation and the consequent demotion of the ambassador, David O’Sullivan, is understood to have been reversed, at least temporarily, the official said.

“Mr. Trump has been critical of multilateral institutions, and his secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, delivered a provocative speech in Brussels on Dec. 4 in which he questioned the value of multinational organizations and institutions like the United Nations and the European Union. … The next day, the European Union’s demotion from a member state to an international organization became clear at the funeral of President George Bush, when Mr. O’Sullivan’s name was not called in the expected order, dictated by diplomatic protocols.” NYT

FOR YOUR RADAR — “U.S. greenhouse gas emissions spiked in 2018 — and it couldn’t happen at a worse time,” by WaPo’s Chris Mooney and Brady Dennis: “U.S. carbon dioxide emissions rose an estimated 3.4 percent in 2018, according to new research — a jarring increase that comes as scientists say the world needs to be aggressively cutting its emissions to avoid the most devastating effects of climate change.

“The findings, published Tuesday by the independent economic research firm Rhodium Group, mean that the United States now has a diminishing chance of meeting its pledge under the 2015 Paris climate agreement to dramatically reduce its emissions by 2025. The findings also underscore how the world’s second-largest emitter, once a global leader in pushing for climate action, has all but abandoned efforts to mitigate the effects of a warming world.” WaPo

WHAT’S ON THE PRESIDENT’S MIND — @realDonaldTrump at 8:01 a.m.: “Economic numbers looking REALLY good. Can you imagine if I had long term ZERO interest rates to play with like the past administration, rather than the rapidly raised normalized rates we have today. That would have been SO EASY! Still, markets up BIG since 2016 Election”.

… at 8:16 a.m.: “Talks with China are going very well!”

… at 9:42 a.m.: “Congratulations to a truly great football team, the Clemson Tigers, on an incredible win last night against a powerful Alabama team. A big win also for the Great State of South Carolina. Look forward to seeing the team, and their brilliant coach, for the second time at the W.H.”

RBG UPDATE — MARK SHERMAN (@shermancourt): “[W]e are not likely to see Justice Ginsburg on the bench this week. She has been out (but working at home) since Dec. 21 surgery to remove malignant growths from her lung.”

THE INVESTIGATIONS … NYT’S BENJAMIN WEISER: “Russian Lawyer in Meeting at Trump Tower Is Charged in Case That Shows Kremlin Ties”: “Natalia V. Veselnitskaya, the Russian lawyer who in 2016 met with Trump campaign officials in Trump Tower, was charged on Tuesday in a separate case that showed her close ties to the Kremlin.

“Ms. Veselnitskaya was charged by federal prosecutors in New York with seeking to thwart a Justice Department civil fraud investigation into money laundering that involved an influential Russian businessman and his investment firm. The case was not directly related to the Trump Tower meeting. But a federal indictment returned in Manhattan seemed to confirm that Ms. Veselnitskaya had deep ties to senior Russian government officials.” NYT

TRADE WARS — WSJ’S LINGLING WEI in Beijing: “U.S., China Negotiators Narrow Differences on Trade”: “The U.S. and China made progress on narrowing their differences on trade issues, especially on purchases of U.S. goods and services and opening China’s markets further, though the two sides are far from striking a deal.

“In two days of intense talks in Beijing that wrapped up Tuesday, U.S. and Chinese mid-level negotiators addressed a number of nettlesome issues and tried to specify how China would carry out pledges it made, according to people on both sides briefed on the discussions.” WSJ

2020 WATCH — CNBC’S BRIAN SCHWARTZ: “Wall Street executives are hearing from Cory Booker, Kamala Harris and other Democrats as they gauge interest in possible 2020 presidential campaigns”: “The revelation of communication between Wall Street donors and possible Democratic candidates threatens to exacerbate tension between the liberal wing of the party, which is increasingly outspoken against the influence of corporate money in politics, and moderates who are seen as more business friendly.” CNBC

SWAMP WATCH — “Former U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl returns to D.C. lobbying firm amid questions of ASU pay,” by The Arizona Republic’s Ronald Hansen: “Days after he retired for the second time from the U.S. Senate, Jon Kyl is back to work again for a Washington, D.C.-based law and lobbying firm.

“Kyl, 76, returns to Covington & Burling, which paid him nearly $ 1.9 million from January 2017 until he returned to the Senate in September, financial disclosure records filed on the day he left office show. Kyl, a veteran Arizona Republican, also received nearly $ 129,000 from Arizona State University in the same 20-month time frame for a series of lectures and for work in connection with the school’s center on water policy.” Republic

TRUMP INC. — WAPO’S DAVID FAHRENTHOLD and JONATHAN O’CONNELL: “7 key questions about what President Trump’s company faces in 2019”: “Trump’s company is preparing to launch a pair of long-delayed hotel chains in the United States, hoping to turn Trump voters into Trump customers. The Trump hotel in Washington continues to attract GOP fundraisers, interest groups and foreign embassy events.

“But 2019 will also bring new problems. Trump’s company is facing multiplying investigations from state and federal authorities, as well as lawsuits seeking to pry into its transactions with foreign governments. And House Democrats plan to use their new majority to delve into the president’s business and personal finances.” WaPo

HILL MOVES — HEATHER CAYGLE: “Luján taps experienced team for assistant speaker’s office”

SPOTTED at a lunch hosted by Lisa Spies honoring Lara Trump in the Franklin Study at the Trump Hotel: Fara Klein, Samantha Dravis, Anita McBride, Lauren Rakolta, Lauren Kirshner, Sylvie Ricketts, Sara Fagen, Merlynn Carson, Jan Elizabeth Acosta, Morgan Ortagus and Bettina Inclán Agen.

TRANSITIONS — Robert Marcus is now chief of staff for Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.). He previously worked at Signal Group and is an Obama White House alum. … Amanda Gonzalez Thompson is now communications director for Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.). She previously was the communications director for the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee and former Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.).

… Chris MacKenzie is now New Hampshire state director for former Rep. John Delaney’s presidential campaign. He most recently was communications director for Rep. Terri Sewell (D-Ala.). More from WMURChris Bond is now managing director at FP1 Strategies. He previously was communications director for Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.).

DOD DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Laura McAleer is joining the University of Notre Dame as associate VP for federal and Washington relations. She was previously acting principal deputy assistant secretary of Defense for legislative affairs.

WEEKEND WEDDING — OBAMA ALUMNI: Dan Brundage, an Obama WH and Commerce alum who served in the Navy and is now at the Fletcher School at Tufts, married Yesenia Miranda. Pic

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