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DATA: Farage and Brexit Party Could Win MASSIVE Majority At UK General Election

Following Farage’s massive win at the European Election, an analyst has shown how Brexit Party could go on to sweep a general election.

Chris Hanretty, Professor of politics at Royal Holloway, University of London, analyzed how every constituency in the United Kingdom voted in the European Parliament. The academic estimates that the Brexit party won the most votes in over 400 Westminster constituencies and adjusted those numbers to offer some insight into how votes might go in a future general election.

In contrast to a potential Brexit Party win, both Labour and the Conservatives would be reduced to a handful of seats in the Commons.

If the numbers hold, Farage could lead his party to the biggest general election since Tony Blair led New Labour to victory in 1997.

In Hanretty’s post on Medium, the professor makes a point to note that European Parliament elections differ from Westminster elections “in many ways,” stating that “the electorate is different, the voting system is different, the parties competing are different, the issues discussed (if any) are different, and the levels of campaign activity and interest are different.”

He adds that if “European Parliament elections results were a good guide to subsequent general elections, UKIP would have won scores of seats in 2015 rather than just one.”

Estimates of the EP2019 vote in Westminster constituencies via Chris Hanretty

The estimates he provided are subject to a margin of error but offer strong insight into how things might possibly go.

If Theresa May’s disastrous leadership of the Conservatives and Corbyn’s lackluster performance are anything to go by, and neither party is unable to rebound from their losses in the European Parliament, Brexit Party could command a majority of the seats in the Commons. In the event that the Tories are decimated, the Conservatives could lose as many as 312 seats—all but one seat. Corbyn’s Labour party would likewise be reduced from 246 to 67.

Estimates of the EP2019 vote in Westminster constituencies via Chris Hanretty

Hanretty’s analysis shows that the Liberal Democrats would be the only other party to make significant gains in a general election, taking over 20 percent of the national vote and seizing London.

“The two-party system in England that has dominated things so much for the last 100 years is for the first time in real trouble,” Farage said.

Farage’s victory in the European Elections shows that Britain is ready for new leadership, and he has promised that his party is now able to field candidates in all 650 constituencies if and when a general election takes place.

“We should be part of the team now, that’s pretty clear,” Farage told Reuters. “If we don’t leave on that day, then you can expect the Brexit Party to repeat this kind of surprise in the next general election,” remarked Farage, who demanded a seat at Brexit talks in the wake of his win.

“The two-party system in England that has dominated things so much for the last 100 years is for the first time in real trouble,” Farage said.

Should Hanretty’s analysis hold true, then Britain is in for some big changes.

Ian Miles Cheong is the managing editor of Human Events

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Source: Human Events

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